RESI forum looks at the economy's wild ride
At annual forum at Towson University, RESI Chief Economist Dr. Daraius Irani predicts a strong economy in 2019 with a slowdown coming in 2020.
By Arthur Smith on November 29, 2018
鈥淭he economy is strong and there is growth. However, it鈥檚 uneven. There are disparities that need to be addressed.鈥
That was the key message from the 2018 Economic Outlook Forum hosted by Towson University and the Regional Economic Studies Institute (RESI) on Thursday morning at West Village Commons. Daraius Irani, Ph.D., RESI鈥檚 chief economist and vice president of strategic partnerships and applied research 麻豆色播, presented his annual, in-depth look at the state of the economy.
Irani began with the good news.
The U.S. is in the second longest economic expansion since World War II and the U.S. jobless rate is holding steady at 3.7 percent 鈥 a 49-year low.
Consumer confidence is also at an 18-year high. Last week, over 165 million Americans shopped during Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, bringing in over $17.8 billion in online sales for the U.S retail market.
鈥淲e are a nation of consumers. When we feel confident, we spend money,鈥 said Irani. 鈥淲e are the only Western country that names shopping days.鈥

Irani went on to explain challenges facing the U.S. economy, including the current trade war with China, which hurts consumers and companies alike, and an increasing U.S. deficit.
The deficit declined after the recent recovery. Today, it鈥檚 beginning to increase and is expected to grow to $1.5 trillion over the next ten years.
鈥淚f the deficit continues to grow it becomes more difficult to spend your way out of a recession and pass economic policies to get out of that recession,鈥 said Irani.
Local Disparities
Locally, there are challenges that need to be addressed if Greater Baltimore is to remain competitive, particularly when it comes to education and transportation, which are critical to getting access to quality jobs.
As fulfillment centers and other employment hubs create new jobs across the region, the challenge is providing workers who rely on public transportation with access to those jobs. If workers are unable to commute, businesses are unable to take full advantage of the potential workforce offered by the Baltimore region.
鈥淯nderinvesting in education, transportation, or even health care, leads to a lower tax base. We won鈥檛 be able to attract new companies to the area. This is a real challenge,鈥 said Irani.
In the recent midterm elections, the 鈥渓ockbox amendment鈥 was passed, ensuring tax funds generated from casinos will go directly toward increasing school funding.
鈥淭his is good. We need to ensure the future workforce has the right education and foundations to compete with other states in our region,鈥 said Irani. 鈥淚f we aren鈥檛 able to educate our population, we won鈥檛 be able to compete moving forward.鈥
Irani referenced a written by RESI that looked at human development disparities in Baltimore City. The paper highlights, in depth, the substantial disparities in life expectancy and educational attainment between different Baltimore neighborhoods.
鈥淲e, as a state, need to ensure all boats are rising,鈥 said Irani. 鈥淭his is a call to action for our city and region.鈥
Save the Date
On Thursday, January 10, the Regional Economic Studies Institute will host a webinar 鈥淗uman Development Disparities in Baltimore鈥 that will dive deeper into the discussed in Irani鈥檚 presentation.
This story is one of several related to President Kim Schatzel鈥檚 priorities for Towson University: TU Matters to Maryland and BTU-Partnerships at Work for Greater Baltimore.